Speculating is not investing but we need both speculators and investors

I actually disagree to some extent with the traditional differentiation between speculating and investing. I think many people (and firms) who call themselves investors are in fact speculators. The case is clear if you have someone who just picks some stocks and hopes that they will go up. Sure, you can do fundamental analysis and form a strong “informed” opinion, but essentially you’re just placing bets. I would argue that the same is true for a larger buy-and-hold investor with a globally diversified portfolio. I don’t think global diversification helps much in today’s connected world, and in essence this investor is just placing a bigger bet that the markets (or rather the global economy) will continue to go up over a longer period of time.

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Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?

Warren Buffet reminded us of this story when he delivered an epic rant against Wall Street last weekend during the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett unloaded what he called a “sermon" about hedge funds and investment consultants. Shortly put, Buffet thinks these players are usually a "huge minus" for anyone who follows their advice.

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The Return of the Gold Bugs

Gold has been a seriously bad investment for the past four years. That hasn’t discouraged the Gold Bugs who remain bullish on gold no matter what. They see gold as the only safe harbour and believe that its value must go up given all the madness in the world. Perhaps the recent price activity in gold marks a new dawn for the Gold Bugs?

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The Art of Sitting on Your Hands

2016 has started roughly for stocks all around the world. The chaos in China spread quickly to other continents and demonstrated brutally how interconnected the global markets are today. Oil is crashing to new lows and is currently trading close to $30. The S&P500 index had its worst-ever first week and went down roughly 10% from autumn highs. The noise is getting louder and louder and stock market investors are faced with a dilemma: should I sell everything or just sit on my hands and keep it cool.

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